« On Wisconsin | Main | For you numbers junkies »

What if Hillary Wins the Nomination?

Hillary%20Wins.jpgAfter cruising the boards much of the afternoon yesterday I found it surprising how paranoid the Clinton seem to be about Obama supporters not voting for Hillary in the general election. Not that that is not a good question to ask, but the level of angst does not really help their case much. The only reason this is an issue is the nature of the Clinton campaign itself.

The Clinton campaign has gone out of its way to drive a wedge between potential Obama voters, Obama supporters and what they perceive as the potential Clinton voter, Clinton supporters. I understand why the Clinton campaign is doing this, it is how the last 4 presidential elections have been won, with the Clintons winning 2 of those contests.

The very nature of wedge politics however is that you leave people out of the process, you alienate them. They feel you are against them if you win. That may be considered an acceptable outcome in the general election (although I don't buy that premise myself), but it is destructive to the party in a primary election. Read my Clinton Legacy post for more on what Clinton style politics has really meant for the Democratic Party in general.

Clinton supporters on the boards in general seem confused by the negative and even often times angry response to her campaign on the message boards. They just don't see why Obama supporters are so upset. The problem here is twofold as I see it.

  1. Clinton supporters accept the model of wedge politics. This is not to say they like it, but, after the last two decades of this style, it is now the accepted method. Many believe it is the only way to win.
  2. Clinton supporters don't get how infuriating it is to be on the receiving end of Clintonian politics. I never did until I supported a candidate they were trying to beat. I don't think the level of rage Republicans feel toward the Clintons is rational or even justified, but I can begin to empathize with them to at least small extent now.

On Wedge Politics

I made this case on the boards yesterday and found that Clinton supporters did not feel that the Clintons engaged in wedge politics. Astonishing. They may feel that way be because the Bush regime focused wedge politics more on the strength of the sledge hammer swing rather than relying on the wedge to do the work for them like the Clintons do. Here are just a few samples of how the Clintons have deployed wedge poltiics:

  • Promoting the idea that Hillary's working class support does not have the time to caucus. They constantly cite this as the reason they have only won one out of twelve caucus contests. It is not true, their campaign strategy was to wrap this up by Super Tuesday so they did not lay the organizational groundwork needed to win the caucuses. They do not want to admit this failing, so they pull out the wedge.
  • Saying well Jesse Jackson also won South Carolina. Bill Clinton may not be racist, but that comment was designed to create an image of Barack Obama as 'The Black Candidate'. The facts hurt them, so they pull out the wedge.
  • Obama supporters that caucus don't need a president they just want change. Same argument as #1 from the opposite direction. Their campaign has a problem, pull out the wedge.
  • Big state - Blue State victories for Hillary vs. small state - red state victories for Obama. Reality is that Clinton does have a lead in the traditional democratic base. The election calendar did favor her significantly on this front as well, Obama has shown his ability to appeal to those voters once they really get a good look at him as demonstrated in the exit polling in Virginia and Maryland. Even though they are actually right about this one, it is what it is, a wedge.

There are many other examples out there, but my point has been made. The Clinton campaign likes to divide us up. That tactical choice does come with consequences.

The Infuriating Stuff

Have you ever been in an argument where you feel you are right and you have just made the critical point that proves it and then the person you are arguing with simply responds, 'whatever'. I have, and it really aggravates me, it just makes me angry if I wasn't already and it infuriates me if I am feeling passionate about my case. The Clinton campaign constantly deploys the 'whatever' tactic. Dismissing Obama as nothing more than a speechmaker is a whatever. Claiming he is spouting empty words is another. This campaign is more than just about who can make a better speech is yet another. I go into some detail about the dismissiveness of Clinton and her supporters in my I Like Krugman But... post.

Beyond the dismissiveness though there are the general tactics deployed. Mark Penn bringing up Obama possibly dealing cocaine back in December. The lifelong ambition bit with the kindergarten papers. The link to a slum lord reference in the debate. Trying to manufacture a story out of Obama's Exelon (whatever that nuclear power company is called) company. Flirting with the idea of calling Barack Obama a liberal.

The worst of all is the Florida and Michigan delegation debate. I agree with the Clinton argument, those votes should count. The problem I have with the Clinton campaign is if they really believed in this cause they would have brought it up in August when the decision was first made, not after they were confident of the outcome in those two states. This just reinforces one of the Clinton campaigns biggest negatives, she is nothing but political crature that will always do the politically expedient thing.

I have spent years defending the Clintons against this very claim. But in the case of Michigan and Florida that is all they have done. If they believed their argument and wanted to be perceived as a leader then they should have said something beforehand. Now they are just political opportunists. Their actions undermine her at almost every step.

What happens if Hillary wins the nomination?

I can assure you I will be voting for the Democrat. I don't want to cast a vote for Hillary, largely for the reasons I have cited above (I would not have made that claim in November by the way),but, I don't want McCain seating the next 2 or 3 supreme court jusitces either. Most liberal and democratic supporters of Obama will come to that realization as well, once their anger subsides a bit.

The other part of Obamas support though will not be as swayed by that argument. The court, as yet, has not rubber stamped enough of the conservative agenda for the middle of the road voters to raise the alarm bells. Unfortunately, it will probably take the overturning of Roe v. Wade to wake them up to what such a conservative court means in their daily lives. By then it will be too late.

Obama and Wedge Issues

I am not naive enough to think that the Obama campaign does not spend time analyzing the identity politics numbers. He does steadfastly resist the urge pit one side against the other however. That is the difference, looking identity groups desires/trends and reaching out them based on that data is not the same thing as using the knowledge gained to drive a wedge between the differing groups.

Obama knows that their are many differences between people in America, he is calling on us to bridge those differences. That is yet another reason why I support Barack Obama.

PrintView Printer Friendly Version

EmailEmail Article to Friend

References (1)

References allow you to track sources for this article, as well as articles that were written in response to this article.
  • Response
    Response: kindergarten

Reader Comments

There are no comments for this journal entry. To create a new comment, use the form below.

PostPost a New Comment

Enter your information below to add a new comment.

My response is on my own website »
Author Email (optional):
Author URL (optional):
Post:
 
Some HTML allowed: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <code> <em> <i> <strike> <strong>